What to expect after the US midterm elections and why Trump is at risk
There is now little doubt that the Republican Party of the incumbent president will lose at least one chamber of Congress.
Trump’s team is making little effort to conceal its intention to challenge the results and contest individual districts if Republican candidates are defeated. US election rules leave ample time for such challenges: under the Constitution, the newly elected Congress will begin its work on 3 January next year.
Read more about the changes to expect in Congress after the elections and how they could affect the future course of US policy and the president himself in the article by Olha Kovalchuk, a European Pravda journalist: Americans against Trump: how a likely Republican defeat in the US congressional elections could change things.
The vote, being watched closely around the world, has already become the most expensive election cycle in US history, surpassing even the 2024 presidential race. Campaign spending has exceeded $11 billion, demonstrating just how high the stakes are for both the incumbent Republican administration and its opponents.
Pollsters have long been saying that Democrats have a good chance of making a comeback in these elections. But a significant shift has occurred in the final days before the vote. For the first time, Trump has acknowledged the possibility of losing control of both chambers of Congress.
In fact, the election results, particularly those for the Senate, will be determined by a handful of districts and states where neither candidate has a clear lead.
Both parties are pouring the most money and effort into campaigning in these battleground districts, and it is too early to be confident about the outcome. It is therefore worth considering the different possible scenarios and their implications for the White House.
First, let us consider a scenario in which Republicans retain control of the Senate but Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives.
This is currently the White House's preferred scenario. In fact, even a tie in the Senate elections would be enough for them.
A Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would give the party control of congressional committees, as well as the power to launch investigations into the US president's administration and even initiate impeachment proceedings. However, this should not be taken to mean that Donald Trump would be removed from office, as the process would be effectively buried in the Senate.
When it comes to the federal budget, however, Democrats would have real leverage over the administration. This is one of the most powerful tools at their disposal.
The second scenario is Donald Trump losing control of both chambers of Congress.
This is very likely, predicted by most polls: Republicans lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
And this is the most dangerous scenario for the Trump administration.
In addition to the pressure from the House described above, Trump would face further challenges from a Democratic majority in the Senate. Democrats would be able to block the president's nominees for key positions.
A Democratic-controlled Senate could also pursue investigations into administration officials launched by the House of Representatives.
Of course, a less likely scenario in which Republicans retain their majorities despite the polling cannot be ruled out entirely. This would give the president greater freedom of action for the remainder of his term, with less resistance from Congress.
Even so, this would not mean unlimited power for Trump. Moreover, disagreements within his own party have become increasingly frequent, with several Republicans voting alongside Democrats.
The administration's desperate attempts to exert pressure and the billions spent on the election campaign are further indications that the midterm results will weaken Trump, regardless of how much he may deny it. If his party loses, the US president will have to contend with the Democrats' agenda and seek compromises with them.