How Georgian Government Is Preparing for EU Rejection and Protests

Friday, 6 October 2023

In Georgia, the "tent law" may come into effect in the coming days. According to it, "temporary structures" near government buildings are prohibited.

They don't hide the reason for passing this law – the preparation for a "EuroMaidan" in Tbilisi, which could start already in October.

Read more about how the Georgian government is preparing for new protests and how its actions could affect the country in the article by EuroPravda editor Yuriu Panchenko, Tbilisi is preparing for Maidan: how Georgian government is tightening screws ahead of EU's rejection.

The "tent law" was registered in the Georgian parliament on 27 September. It was supported in the first reading on 4 October.

Moreover, after civil organisations announced a protest rally for October 5 outside the parliament building, it was announced that the second reading would take place on 6 October.

However, on the evening of 5 October, the controversial law was approved in the second and third readings.

So in the coming days, it will be entirely legal in Georgia to prohibit tents and stages for performances during rallies. It may also be possible to ban sound amplification devices.

This rapid pace is explained by a statement from the State Security Service, which warns of the possibility of "destabilisation of the situation" in the country, up to the point of a state coup. Moreover, the start of these protests is expected in October-November.

The Georgian special services even name potential organisers of these protests, including Giorgi Lortkipanidze, the former deputy interior minister of Georgia and now deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, and Mamuka Mamulashvili, the commander of the "Georgian Legion."

Nobody hides the real reason for such an increase in legislation is the expectation of mass protests in case Georgia is denied EU candidate status.

The relevant decision in the European Commission is planned to be announced on 31 October.

However, it is apparent that the Georgian government prefers to be cautious. We cannot rule out that the relevant decision will be unofficially announced earlier.

Although there are indeed many reasons why Georgia could be denied candidate status. It is supposed that this status should be granted to Georgia as an "advance" in order to prevent its further rapprochement with Russia.

In addition, the Georgian government has an ally within the EU – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban actively supports granting candidate status to Georgia.

However, the adoption of the "tent law" only further distances Georgia from the candidacy.

Should we expect mass protests in Georgia?

If even the rushed approval of this law does not trigger mass protests, then a very uncomfortable question arises: why do we expect that mass protests, let alone a "Georgian EuroMaidan," will be triggered by Brussels' rejection of candidate status for Georgia?

Yes, almost 90% of Georgians support their country's path to the EU. However, for some of them, the government's argument that the reason for the poor relations with the EU is Georgia's refusal to open a second front in the war against Russia, as the West allegedly demands from Tbilisi, is acceptable.

If it becomes real, then the EU rejection will launch a powerful wave of anti-Western rhetoric from the Georgian government. Discussions about a pro-Russian turn in Tbilisi will receive new confirmation.

So Georgian citizens who believe in their country's European future have very little time left to prevent such a scenario.

As Josep Borrell said in Tbilisi, "The doors to the EU are open, and we want to support you on this path." The next window of opportunity for Tbilisi may not appear anytime soon.

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