How Canada is shifting its focus from the US to the EU and could it lead to membership?
Amid a breakdown in its traditional relationship with the United States, Canada has announced an "accelerated pivot" of its economy toward the European market.
Although this might initially sound like an emotional reaction, it reflects a long, nearly decade-long evolution in Canada–EU relations – now gaining serious momentum.
Read more about the consequences of this "accelerated pivot" and whether Canada could one day join the EU in the article by Dmytro Sherengovsky, Vice-Rector of the Ukrainian Catholic University: Canada’s European integration: how Trump 'forced' Ottawa to deepen ties with the EU.
Canada took its first major step toward Europe back in October 2016, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) – dubbed at the time an "economic NATO."
But Canada’s true "European vector" only began in earnest in 2025, more precisely, with Donald Trump's return to the White House.
"America is no longer a friend, but a risk," that’s how public discourse in Canada today could be summed up.
Amid a trade war with the US, Canada’s bilateral trade with the EU in 2025 shows not just passive growth, but a qualitative rethinking: less focus on traditional car manufacturing, more on the energy transition; fewer raw resources, more high-tech and services.
A March meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer opened the door for Canada to join the ambitious European initiative ReArm Europe, a plan to mobilise €800 billion for rearming the continent by 2030.
The Canadian government has already begun negotiations to localise parts of air defense and drone production at plants in Quebec and Ontario.
Mark Carney has described the current situation as a "hinge moment" – one that will define Canada’s future for decades. But this is more than just a catchy phrase, and not just about boosting defence spending.
Above all, it marks Canada’s geopolitical emancipation, a break from its traditional role as the US’s quiet junior partner.
Following Trump’s return to power, Canada even conducted a public opinion poll on EU membership – a revolutionary shift in itself.
A February poll by Abacus Data found that 44% of Canadians support exploring the possibility of joining the EU, 34% are opposed and 22% are undecided.
Of course, full EU membership for Canada remains highly unlikely at this point. But new forms of cooperation may be explored. European politicians are openly discussing nontraditional solutions, such as a Canada-plus framework inspired by models like Norway’s or Switzerland’s.
The next key event that will define future cooperation and integration formats is the upcoming EU–Canada summit, scheduled for October.
There is a strong likelihood that Brussels and Ottawa will launch a new political dialogue format – a permanent strategic council to coordinate foreign policy priorities.
A separate set of negotiations will focus on modernising the CETA trade agreement. Talks will go beyond expanded market access and investment protection to also cover updated rules for digital trade, services, and export credit.
In less than half a year, Washington’s new policy has radically transformed both US-Canada relations and Canada’s relationship with the EU.
It’s a paradox: the America First doctrine did not strengthen US leadership. Instead, it created the conditions for the tightest transatlantic partnership between Canada and the EU yet, and one that operates beyond US control.