What is Trump’s goal in the deal with Lukashenko, and will it lead anywhere?
On Saturday 13 December, it became known that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus had released 123 political prisoners. This is the third release of hostages by the Lukashenko regime to have been brokered by the Trump administration. It’s also the largest and the most high-profile release.
But the concessions made by Washington appear to be far more serious.
The United States has announced that it will lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. Potash exports are one of the main sources of revenue for the Belarusian state budget.
Read more about the deal, Trump’s objectives and what kind of continuation the current exchange may have in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Trump’s deal with Belarus’s dictator: what lies behind the release of political prisoners?
But the process by which the political prisoners were released was not entirely without surprises.
In the past, all released prisoners have been deported to Lithuania, but this time things were done differently. The majority of the political prisoners, including Viktar Babaryka and Maria Kalesnikava, were deported to Ukraine. It was later reported that this decision was made personally by Lukashenko in the last few hours before the deportation.
A small number of prisoners were, however, deported to Lithuania, including human rights activist and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski.
This is rather telling, since of all Lukashenko’s prisoners, Bialiatski was the only one of personal interest to Trump.
The release of a Nobel laureate is meant to increase the chances of the US president himself receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
Despite three waves of releases, there are still around a thousand political prisoners in Belarus.
Trump’s special envoy John Coale has suggested they could be released within a month, quite possibly all at once.
The US representative also predicted that Lukashenko may abandon the practice of launching weather balloons toward Lithuania, as he is "sincerely trying to calm it down" when it comes to relations with his neighbours.
In return for the release of all the political prisoners, Coale said, most of the sanctions against Belarus could be removed. Coale called this "a fair trade".
In addition, it is believed that Lukashenko could also be useful to the United States in exerting pressure on Putin. John Coale has said that he discussed the Russo-Ukrainian war with Lukashenko, and Lukashenko’s advice and close contact with the Russian ruler could prove useful.
Another possible option is influence over Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, with whom the Belarusian dictator has good relations.
However, in both cases, it would clearly be unwise to seriously count on Lukashenko’s assistance being effective.
The EU sanctions are far more significant for the Belarusian economy than the American ones.
It’s thought that unless the European Union lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash, the positive effect for Belarus from the United States’ removal of similar sanctions will be very limited.
The main obstacle preventing Lukashenko from fully benefiting from the lifting of the potash sanctions is the lack of maritime logistics. The removal of the sanctions could have a tangible impact were Lithuania to agree to unblock the transit of Belarusian fertilisers to Klaipėda.
But Vilnius has been clear that it will make no concessions to the Belarusian regime.
And Lukashenko has no other star hostages left who could be of interest to Trump and be used to put pressure on Lithuania.
It appears that further exchanges between the United States and Belarus will depend on the progress of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. If these talks move forward, the United States will have an interest in improving relations with Belarus as one element of soft pressure on Putin.