How the Ukrainian drone incident brought down Latvia's government and what consequences it may have
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa has resigned.
The current political crisis has a "Ukrainian trace".
The confrontation began after three Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace. Two of them struck an oil depot, which fortunately turned out to be empty.
Kyiv acknowledged that the drones belonged to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, apologised to Latvia and offered assistance.
Read more about whether the drone incidents were the real reason behind the collapse of the coalition and how the current crisis could affect relations between Riga and Kyiv in the article by European Pravda co-founder Yurii Panchenko: The Ukrainian attack that brought down the government: will the strike on an oil depot damage Ukraine-Latvia relations?
On 7 May, an extraordinary incident occurred in the Latvian city of Rēzekne, near the Russian border: three Ukrainian drones crossed into Latvia from Russian territory while flying towards Russian ports on the Baltic Sea.
On 10 May, Latvian Defence Minister Andris Sprūds announced his resignation.
The drone incident triggered sharp criticism of the defence minister from both the opposition and coalition partners. Sprūds was accused of failing to prepare the country for aerial attacks, as demonstrated by the incident. First, the Latvian military failed to shoot down the drones. Second, air raid alerts were sent to residents only after the danger had already passed.
All of this occurred despite Latvia's record increases in defence spending.
Prime Minister Evika Siliņa announced the name of Sprūds' potential successor: Colonel Raivis Melnis.
Melnis currently serves as an adviser to the Latvian prime minister, but in recent years he worked in Ukraine as a special representative of Latvia's Ministry of Defence, essentially functioning as one of the military attachés at the embassy in Kyiv. This experience has given him a uniquely deep understanding of modern drone warfare.
However, politically, the appointment raises several questions.
One issue is that it would violate NATO’s general practice that defence ministers should be civilians.
An even greater problem is political. Under coalition agreements, the post of defence minister belongs to the quota of the The Progressives party, of which Sprūds was a representative. At the very least, Siliņa could have asked coalition partners to nominate the non-partisan Melnis themselves.
Instead, she made no attempt to find a compromise and deliberately chose a path leading toward the collapse of the coalition.
The Progressives made their final decision to leave the coalition after a meeting with the prime minister. According to party leader Andris Šuvajevs, during the 13 May meeting he "did not receive answers" from Siliņa and added that the prime minister had "brought down her own government".
"The prime minister is acting in pursuit of her own goals whether ratings or election preparations," Šuvajevs said.
Latvia’s next parliamentary elections are set to be held in October – less than six months away from now.
The coalition with ideological opponents has led to a significant decline in the ratings of Siliņa's centre-right party New Unity.
The prime minister appears interested in distancing herself from the liberals of The Progressives and leading the country into elections at the head of a new technocratic government supported by the right-wing opposition. This could improve her party’s electoral prospects.
In this context, the Ukrainian drones became merely a pretext for a long-anticipated political divorce.
For now, the crisis in Latvia is escalating, but it is unlikely to change the country’s position on supporting Ukraine.