Why the constitutional order of BiH was targeted in Croatia and what consequences it may have

At a recent academic conference in Zagreb, Ivan Pepić, an associate professor at the Croatian State "Franjo Tuđman" Institute of Defence and Security, presented a map of Bosnia and Herzegovina showing three self-governing regions (entities) within the country.

There are two such entities: the Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS).

Pepić proposes creating a third entity – a "Croatian Republic".

Read more about why this idea has resurfaced, whether it could be implemented and what consequences it might bring in the article by Western Balkans expert Volodymyr Tsybulnyk: A bomb under the peace agreements: how Croatian demands destabilise Bosnia and Herzegovina.

There are a number of serious obstacles to the hypothetical creation of a Croatian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

First and foremost are the Dayton Peace Agreement, the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and its laws, all of which do not allow changes to the country’s political-administrative structure or borders. Bypassing these rules is practically impossible.

Another issue is that Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina are the smallest constitutional people, making up 15.4% of the population according to the 2013 census.

This raises questions about the justification for claims to a separate political entity.

Supporters of the idea propose forming the Croatian entity by carving out parts from the existing two entities. In that case, the new entity would have almost the same territory as the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but with three times fewer inhabitants.

Such political-administrative fragmentation could lead to catastrophic problems across Bosnia and Herzegovina’s systems – governance, transport and legal structures. Blockades would become an effective tool for each entity to achieve its own goals.

Why is this idea being discussed now? The renewed attention is partly linked to the fact that the EU and the US are currently focused on wars in Ukraine and Iran.

Shifts in the geopolitical balance may create favourable conditions for advancing this project, according to right-wing politicians and theorists, including figures associated with the US MAGA movement, which shows interest in developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Following the controversial panel at the Zagreb conference, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina issued a protest note.

It stated that the idea of forming a Croatian entity aims to undermine the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, constitutes direct interference in its internal affairs and attacks its constitutional order. Most importantly, it is an attempt to undermine the Dayton Peace Agreement.

This is unacceptable, as the Dayton Agreement is considered a "sacred cow" not only for the United States but for all signatories.

The position of the "collective West" is clear: any change to the agreements that ended the war in the former Yugoslavia could open a "Pandora’s box", potentially triggering new bloodshed.

However, Bosnian Croats have unexpected allies: Russia and local Serb actors.

Although Russia formally claims to support the Dayton Agreement, it simultaneously shows restrained support for Croat demands for equality with other constitutional peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Support for Bosnian Croat demands fits into Moscow's broader strategy of destabilising Bosnia and Herzegovina.

At the same time, calls are growing within Bosnia and Herzegovina for building a democratic state that respects the rights of all nationalities, not only Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats.

However, the ethnic division of Bosnia and Herzegovina enshrined in the Dayton Agreement continues to hinder the country’s development.