How EU opened a "window of opportunity" for Armenia and why Pashinyan will use it
On 2 July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Yerevan.
This was already her second visit to the Armenian capital within a month.
Read more about the signal she brought to Yerevan and whether Armenia is truly moving closer to the EU in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's co-founder: A cautious Pashinyan: What the restrained reaction of Yerevan to unprecedented EU support means.
The President of the European Commission announced in Yerevan an unprecedented liberalisation of access for Armenian goods to EU markets.
"With this, we can re-route products that currently still rely heavily on the Russian market and send them to the European Union single market of 450 million consumers. The measures would cover almost all Armenian fresh fruits, vegetables and plants previously exported to Russia, and more than 90 percent of its beverages and spirits exports. This is only the beginning," she said.
Armenian producers are expected to receive soon significantly easier access to European markets.
However, this is a unilateral opening of the EU market, not mutual liberalisation. Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, which means it cannot unilaterally change the terms of access for European goods to its own market.
EU assistance does not stop there. According to Ursula von der Leyen, the EU also plans to help protect Armenia from Russian energy threats.
In particular, European experts are expected to arrive in Armenia in the coming days to explore ways to diversify energy supplies.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasised that "we have never set, do not set, and will not set the goal of creating a crisis in relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation."
According to Tigran Khzmalyan, head of the European Party of Armenia, this is not just tactlessness, but a sign that the Armenian leadership is not ready for real rapprochement with the EU.
However, government officials respond differently to such criticism.
As Armenian ruling-party politicians have repeatedly stated, Yerevan will openly speak about EU membership only after a peace agreement with Azerbaijan is signed and relations with Türkiye are unblocked.
Notably, in assessing the results of Armenia’s elections, many Russian political analysts pointed out that Pashinyan failed to secure a full victory. His party did not gain a constitutional majority and therefore cannot unilaterally amend the constitution in the way Baku demands, namely to remove all references to Nagorno-Karabakh. Relying on openly pro-Russian opposition votes is not realistic.
Without constitutional amendments, Armenia will not be able to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, which in turn remains a major obstacle to European integration.
However, this is not entirely accurate. Nikol Pashinyan does have a way to amend the constitution without a parliamentary supermajority.
This would be done through a nationwide referendum.
To initiate it, 300,000 signatures must be collected.
It is possible that preparations for such a scenario are already underway. For example, last week parliament voted to ban voting rights for citizens who do not permanently reside in Armenia.
The failure of pro-Russian parties in the recent elections, combined with the EU’s willingness to engage in the region, creates a real "window of opportunity" for Armenia.
The only question is whether Nikol Pashinyan actually wants to seize it.
His first foreign visit after being re-elected prime minister was to Yekaterinburg, Russia. This further deepens uncertainty about whether Armenia’s leadership is truly ready to take advantage of the opportunity currently offered by the EU.