How Latvia's elections could reshape the government and what the "Latvian Trump" could change
Latvian parliamentary elections are set to be held on 3 October, with the result expected to bring about a reshuffling of the governing coalition.
At first glance, the country is likely to remain a reliable ally of Ukraine. However, certain risks cannot be ruled out.
Read more about whom Latvians are preparing to elect to parliament, where the votes of Russian-speaking voters will go and what the "Latvian Trump" has to do with it in the article by European Pravda co-founder Yurii Panchenko: Populists instead of "Russians": what Latvia’s new elections will change and what Ukraine should expect.
At the end of May, a major scandal shook Latvian politics.
Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned over the uncoordinated replacement of the defence minister. This happened less than six months before the parliamentary elections, meaning there was no possibility of dissolving parliament early. Latvian politicians were therefore forced to find a way to continue working together, at least until 3 October.
However, the liberal-conservative New Unity party, which currently has the largest faction in Latvia’s Saeima and was expected to nominate the next prime minister, had so badly damaged its relations with coalition partners that the premiership ultimately went to Andris Kulbergs, leader of the opposition centre-right United List.
The move proved decisive: after his appointment, support for the opposition party began to rise rapidly.
As a result, the United List is expected to come first in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
This would effectively ensure that Kulbergs remains prime minister.
Such a scenario would be positive for Ukraine, as during his three and a half months in office, Kulbergs has shown that he does not intend to weaken support for Kyiv. Moreover, under the new prime minister, Kyiv and Riga agreed to jointly build a strike-drone manufacturing plant. It is also the current Latvian government that is blocking the lifting of sanctions against Putin-linked oligarchs.
However, it also matters who will become the United List’s coalition partner.
The right-conservative National Alliance is almost certain to be part of the coalition.
One distinctive feature of this political force is that since its founding in 2011, it has almost always been part of governing coalitions, with Evika Siliņa’s previous government being a notable exception.
The party takes an uncompromisingly pro-Ukrainian position, but according to opinion polls, its number of seats may not be enough to form a coalition.
This means that the United List and the National Alliance will need at least one more political force to secure a parliamentary majority. And this is where some less welcome surprises could emerge.
Having ruled out coalition-building with several political forces, Prime Minister Kulbergs’ party has only two potential partners to shore up the majority: Latvia First or the Progressives, a liberal party that is ideologically very far from the frontrunner.
Thus, the future coalition could include Latvia First, led by millionaire businessman and property developer Ainārs Šlesers. He presents himself as the "Latvian Trump". The name of his political force reflects that positioning as well.
His desire to emulate the US president also influences the party’s foreign-policy stance. In particular, while supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU, Latvia First does not support Ukraine joining NATO, since the United States opposes it.
The party’s platform includes proposals aimed at attracting votes from Russian-speaking voters.
It is a typical right-wing populist party, focusing primarily on promises to cut taxes and reduce government spending.
It remains to be seen whether the inclusion of populists in the future coalition will become a problem for Latvia’s government in maintaining its pro-Ukrainian course.