Why Trump is reducing US troops in Europe and why it hasn't caused panic in EU capitals
News about the withdrawal of part of US troops from Germany shook officials on both sides of the Atlantic last Saturday.
Donald Trump's statement came immediately after his public criticism of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for criticizing the US strategy in the war against Iran or rather, its absence.
But the motives behind withdrawing US troops from Germany run much deeper.
Read more in the article by European Pravda journalist Olha Kovalchuk: Punishment for Germany: why Trump is withdrawing troops from Europe and whether this is revenge over Iran.
Currently, Germany hosts the largest US military contingent in Europe – about 35,000 to 39,000 troops (out of 68,000 stationed across Europe in total).
The war in Iran clearly demonstrated how dependent US operations are on access to European bases for landing and refueling. The refusal of several European countries to allow US aircraft to use their airbases during the Iran campaign was a painful issue for the Pentagon. Notably, however, Germany did grant such permission.
The roots of the troop withdrawal decision go back to Trump’s first term.
At that time, he proposed a much larger reduction – by 9,500 troops, arguing that Germany’s defence spending was insufficient, as it did not meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target.
Trump’s plan was to relocate some troops back to the United States and redeploy others to countries like Poland and Italy. Ultimately, this plan was halted after Joe Biden was elected and reversed the decision.
Now, Trump can no longer justify the move by pointing to Germany’s defence spending. In recent years, Berlin has increased its defence budget to 2% of GDP and plans to approach NATO’s new 3.5% target by 2029.
At present, it appears that the public dispute with Merz over Iran merely accelerated a process that had been discussed even before Trump’s re-election. The United States has begun a global reorientation of its resources and Europe is no longer a top priority.
The key architect of the new US military strategy is Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.
His influence on these decisions is undeniable. However, it would be wrong to interpret him as pro-Russian. His vision is not based on sympathy for Russia or a desire for Ukraine’s defeat rather, the war simply does not rank among America’s top priorities.
Colby outlined his approach in his 2021 book "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict", where Europe is defined as a "secondary" theater for the US.
The primary and most important theater for the US is the Indo-Pacific region.
At a NATO defence ministers’ meeting in February, Colby stated that "Europe must have the forces necessary to deter and, if needed, repel conventional aggression on its own".
According to CBS News, some of the troops withdrawn from Germany may be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific.
It appears that Berlin had been preparing for this move. According to The Wall Street Journal, Germany is actively involved in preparing for the creation of a "European NATO" and is getting ready to take on a broader leadership role within the Alliance. In February, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Berlin would nominate its candidate for NATO’s second-highest military position.
All of this points to Europe’s growing awareness of the depth of the strategic shift in its relationship with the United States.